Will AI replace Painters, Construction and Maintenance?

AI can do 4% of the work Painters, Construction and Maintenance do at least twice as fast. Real use has not caught up: none of their tasks show up in real AI use yet, but AI could speed up 1 of them. Robots can technically handle 12 physical tasks. 6 still need a person.

AI is already doing this0 · 0% of time

People already use AI for these tasks in real work, based on Anthropic's analysis of how Claude is used.

  • Real AI use has not reached any of this job's tasks yet.

AI could do this next1 · 4% of time

AI can speed these up by at least half, but real use has not caught up yet. These are next in line.

  • Calculate amounts of required materials and estimate costs, based on surface measurements or work orders.4% of time

Robots can technically do this12 · 66% of time

Physical tasks that today's robots can perform in at least some settings. Robots are cost competitive for very few tasks so far, so this change moves slower.

  • Apply paint, stain, varnish, enamel, or other finishes to equipment, buildings, bridges, or other structures, using brushes, spray guns, or rollers.Robots: purpose built settings37% of time
  • Fill cracks, holes, or joints with caulk, putty, plaster, or other fillers, using caulking guns or putty knives.Robots: purpose built settings7% of time
  • Apply primers or sealers to prepare new surfaces, such as bare wood or metal, for finish coats.Robots: purpose built settings7% of time
  • Remove fixtures such as pictures, door knobs, lamps, or electric switch covers prior to painting.Robots: purpose built settings3% of time
  • Mix and match colors of paint, stain, or varnish with oil or thinning and drying additives to obtain desired colors and consistencies.Robots: purpose built settings3% of time
  • Remove old finishes by stripping, sanding, wire brushing, burning, or using water or abrasive blasting.Robots: purpose built settings3% of time
  • Polish final coats to specified finishes.Robots: purpose built settings1% of time
  • Use special finishing techniques such as sponging, ragging, layering, or faux finishing.Robots: purpose built settings1% of time
  • Waterproof buildings, using waterproofers or caulking.Robots: purpose built settings1% of time
  • Cut stencils and brush or spray lettering or decorations on surfaces.Robots: structured workplaces1% of time
  • Spray or brush hot plastics or pitch onto surfaces.Robots: purpose built settingsunder 1% of time
  • Bake finishes on painted or enameled articles, using baking ovens.Robots: purpose built settingsunder 1% of time

Still needs a person6 · 30% of time

No real AI use, no proven AI speedup and no robot that can do it yet. This is the part of the job to build on.

  • Cover surfaces with dropcloths or masking tape and paper to protect surfaces during painting.10% of time
  • Smooth surfaces, using sandpaper, scrapers, brushes, steel wool, or sanding machines.7% of time
  • Erect scaffolding or swing gates, or set up ladders, to work above ground level.4% of time
  • Read work orders or receive instructions from supervisors or homeowners to determine work requirements.3% of time
  • Wash and treat surfaces with oil, turpentine, mildew remover, or other preparations, and sand rough spots to ensure that finishes will adhere properly.3% of time
  • Select and purchase tools or finishes for surfaces to be covered, considering durability, ease of handling, methods of application, and customers' wishes.3% of time

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What this means

Little of this work suits AI. The bigger change here is robots: today's robots can technically do 66% of the working time, though they are rarely cheap enough to replace people yet.

What to do next

  • Get ahead on the 1 task AI could do next. These move as tools improve, so learning them early pays off.
  • Keep an eye on the 12 physical tasks robots can technically do. Cost keeps most robots out of work today, so this shift is slower.
  • Build on the 6 tasks that stay human. This is where your judgment, skill and relationships matter most.

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